The golden investment period of cryptocurrencies
It can be seen from the 500-year trend chart of the global stock market that the development of human society is accelerating, and the speed of the replacement between the old and the new is getting faster and faster.
It took 167 years from the issuance of the world’s first stock to the bursting of the first stock market bubble, but it took only a few decades for the first auto stock to be issued to the Great Depression, and the first Internet stock to be listed on the Internet. The bursting of the bubble was shortened to a few years. Investment methods vary in different periods. Graham, the father of value investing,’s cigarette butt-picking investment method had completely expired in the 1960s, and Warren Buffett is proud that the value investment method has lagged behind Nasdaq for 10 consecutive years.index. AppleThe company's stock only entered Berkshire's investment portfolio in 2016. Why did it fail to get into Buffett's eyes when Apple's stock price was extremely low in 1997 or 2002 ? And do you think there is investment value until the stock price has risen 100 times? Looking at the annual reports of listed companies alone can no longer grasp the world's development trends , but all Apple product enthusiasts should buy Apple stocks as soon as the iPhone is released in June 2007-despite the subsequent global financial tsunami stock prices plummeted.
Bitcoin, which was born at the end of the global financial tsunami in 2009, is an inevitable and important manifestation of the development of things. On the surface, the creators are dissatisfied with the current world currency system, but in fact the entire world economic structure needs to be reorganized-the world's first stock issuance in 1553 is also the case. If you fail to understand this, you will inevitably have resistance and resistance to cryptocurrencies. On September 20, 2014, the author wrote in the article "Only Virtual Currency Can Beat Jack Ma" :
"New things are always suspected by the public. Bitcoin and other virtual currencies are discriminated against and considered to be Ponzi schemes. Governments suppress them. However, virtual currencies are still alive and accepted by more and more merchants. International remittances such as Western Union, MoneyGram, etc. are not only expensive and time-consuming, but overseas payments such as MasterCard and Visa Or UnionPay cards, etc., even if the time limit is fast, the handling fee is still high, which hinders economic development and will inevitably be replaced in the future. I believe that under the monopoly of today's Internet giants, the virtual currency system must be defeated by these giants in the future. "
Now Paypal has allowed users to buy and sell cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, and the number of Paypal users exceeds 300 million, which will greatly increase the penetration rate of cryptocurrencies. The total market value of cryptocurrencies exceeds US$2.2 trillion, and the total monthly market value of Bitcoin is US$1 trillion, which is close to two Alibaba.Market value, defeating Jack Ma became a reality.
April 2019 saw a card broker published research reports , referring to the eighth ordinary people the opportunity to change the fate of the stock market, so the emotions I wrote "ordinary people the opportunity to change the fate of the eighth where" a text, to Readers highly recommend investing in Bitcoin. The investment reason is based on the fact that the cryptocurrency system is equivalent to the introduction of the shareholding system hundreds of years ago and the penetration rate S-curve investment method-at that time, the Bitcoin penetration rate in major countries was close to 10%.
In February last year, the author pointed out in my book " Foresight for the 2020s" : "The penetration rate of cryptocurrency in major countries was close to 10% last year, entering the critical point of rapid growth in the industry. Just as in 1914, we were in a U.S. city with a car penetration rate of 10%. %. In 1996, the U.S. Internet penetration rate was 10%, and cryptocurrency also entered the 10% critical point in 2019. I believe that cryptocurrency will repeat the frenzy of American auto stocks from 1914 to 1929 and the US tech stock bubble in the 1990s."
Last year, the Covid-19 epidemic raged around the world, forcing the United States to The infinite QE of the package orders written on the chest of the reserve auction has caused the global asset prices to skyrocket. The price of Bitcoin jumped up after the “slave street” in March last year and continued to rise. In June and July last year, the American Grayscale Company commissioned a survey to show that the penetration rate of Bitcoin in the United States was hitting the 10% important mark. At the beginning of February this year, the estimated number of Bitcoin users was similar to the number of Internet users at the beginning of 1997, and the user growth rate was faster.
In 1914, the U.S. city car penetration rate exceeded 10%. From 1914 to 1919, the U.S. city car penetration rate rose from 10% to about 50%, and the S&P auto stock index rose 14 times over the same period (data from Harry Diante); 1996 At the beginning of the year, the Internet penetration rate in the United States exceeded 10%. From 1996 to 2001, the Internet penetration rate in the United States rose from 10% to nearly 50%. From 1996 to 2000, the GSTI Internet Index increased by 7 times. In the same way, the U.S. Bitcoin penetration rate will also exceed 10% in 2020. Will it be 202? The penetration rate of Bitcoin in the United States rose from 10% to 50% in 2015. What about the increase in Bitcoin (cryptocurrency)? Is this the best investment opportunity in our life? The answer is obvious.
As an ordinary investor, it is too risky to invest your entire net worth in cryptocurrencies-young people who have just come out to work can give it a try-so the author draws the S&P 500 index, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index and Bitcoin according to a certain ratio to outline the global investment trend picture. Before July 2010, the figure shows the world's major index complexes. After that, it shows the trend of SP500+HS300+BTC (according to a certain proportion).
Global investment trends have started a cycle of wave V since March 2009-(I) wave V hype auto stocks in the final stage, (III) wave III hype technology net stocks in the final stage, (III) wave V hype cryptocurrency in the final stage, very Reasonable and consistent with facts. In my opinion, this is the only way to count waves, in which V wave (1) rose from the low in March 2009 to the beginning of 2018-Bitcoin peaked at the end of 2017, and it is not accidental that other cryptocurrencies peaked at the beginning of 2018- Then there is V wave (2), an irregular platform, where the beginning of 2018 fell to the end of the year as (2) wave a, the end of 2018 rose to February 2020 as (2) wave b, and then it fell sharply to March as (2) ) Wave c. V wave (3) is launched at the low of March 2020.
Subdivide the V wave (3). There are two greater possibilities for the current trend:
First, from a conservative point of view, the low point in March 2020 rose to early September as (3) Wave 1, and it fell to (3) Wave 2 at the beginning of September 2020 and rose to February 22 this year at the end of October 2020. It is (3) wave 3, and then it enters (3) wave 4 to adjust until now, the form is only irregular platform.
Second, looking very optimistically, the low point in March 2020 will rise to April 16 this year as a set of 5 waves rising, divided into (3) wave 1, and then entering (3) wave 2, when the adjustment is over, it will enter (3) Wave 3 rises. Since (3) wave 1 has a rise of 1.1 times, (3) wave 3's rise will not be lower than this value, and the trend of the market outlook will be quite exaggerated.
The Financial Times published an article titled "Coinbase Continues to Write the Netscape Legend? ". The article pointed out that for cryptocurrency enthusiasts, "Coinbase" is listed on the U.S. stock market as if it were a modern version of Netscape a quarter of a century ago. Netscape was just a start-up in Silicon Valley at the time of its IPO. When it went public in 1995, it asked fund managers to scratch their heads: how to value this company. Now Wall Street has issued the same question. "Coinbase" manages 56 million investors' digital assets and is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States. The company's revenue in the first quarter of this year was approximately US$1.8 billion, with a profit of at least US$730 million. Compared with the existing brokers and exchanges earning fees through stock trading, it can be described as lucrative. The CEO of Kraken, one of Coinbase's competitors, also announced plans to go public. Based on the recent trading price of Kraken's shares, the company's valuation is between 10 billion and 15 billion U.S. dollars.
With the rise of the crypto wave, there is an endless stream of new investors. Since the beginning of this year, non-bitcoin cryptocurrencies have seen a strong trend, with Ethereum ETH ranking second in total market value. Ethereum has continued its efforts this year on the basis of a 4.6 times increase last year, and the current increase is as high as 4.2 times. If you calculate the largest increase since the lowest point in March last year, $87 to $4371, an increase of 49 times! At the lowest point on March 13 last year, the total value of the entire cryptocurrency market was 108.1 billion U.S. dollars, and it is currently as high as 22,571 trillion U.S. dollars, an increase of 20 times. The largest increase in cryptocurrency is SHIBA INU (Shiba Inu Coin), 550,000 times. The lowest price is less than US$0.0000000001, and there are 9 zeros after the decimal point, that is, the market value of 10 billion pieces is less than US$1, but the highest price recently is US$0.000039, and the market value of 10 billion pieces has reached US$390,000. The Shiba Coin was listed on the Binance Exchange, and the increase more than doubled within 10 minutes, causing Binance to "crash", extremely crazy!
The recent wave of speculation originated from Tesla CEO Musk on Twitter Doge coin (Doge) is touted strongly on the Internet. Dogecoin originated from the author's satire on Bitcoin in early 2014. The founder sold out all Dogecoin in 2015 to earn a second-hand Honda car. Obviously, this dude missed hundreds of millions.
Fosun Group CEO Liang Xinjun's speech titled "The Future is Coming-Twenty Years of Blockchain and Data Economy". It seems that it is inevitable for traditional people to enter the cryptocurrency market. As an investor, the penetration rate of cryptocurrency has risen from 10% to nearly 50% during this golden period of investment, how much benefit can be gained!